Andre Snellings, ESPNOct 7, 2022, 05:00 PM ET
Who's No. 1?
In the NBA last season, the answer was the Warriors. If you're asking about the GOAT, we can listen to Jordan vs. LeBron arguments for the rest of the night.
But if you're asking who's No. 1 among picks for your fantasy basketball draft?
Well, for many people, that question is just about the extent of their draft prep. They'll discuss, maybe even read about a few players that could have an argument for the top spot in the draft. Then, they'll pull up their cheat sheets and use them as references to guide their draft picks.
Here's the problem with that strategy... actually, there are multiple, but let's highlight a few. First, unless you have the top pick, the "who's number one" debate doesn't really help you. More importantly, the best teams will be the ones that find quality all through the draft, not just with their first pick. This requires strategy, but usually drafts tend to move too quickly for a drafter to build a sound strategy on the fly.
Merely taking the highest rated player in every round will not necessarily build you a balanced team that makes sense and can compete for championships. Every position is different, and often the value proposition for a given position will thus change at different points in the draft. It is important that you be aware of this value landscape, as it may help you choose between two similar caliber prospects based upon the likelihood that you'll be able to fill that position better at another point of the draft.
The following is my breakdown of players into tiers, by position, based upon my preseason projections. It would be worthwhile for you to see how I break things down, but ultimately you'll get the most benefit out of taking a few minutes for yourself and breaking down the players into your own tiers based upon your own valuation. You would be shocked how much a little exercise like that can do to prepare you for your draft, and how much this 20 minute exercise could set you apart from the other team managers in your league.
Point guard
The top tier of point guards is made up of three young guns, all new to this level. All of them have taken major strides early in their career, and still have the potential to make another leap this season. Tier two has two veterans that, were durability and age not a concerned, would inhabit their usual place in Tier 1, plus a youngster that is likely a year or two from his own slot at the top. Tier 3 contains the last of the players capable of Tier 1 production, but containing question marks that slid them down the list. Tiers 4 and 5 contain a mix of young players on the way up, veterans on the way down and prime performers that have settled in at All Star level. Tiers 6 and 7 contains players that blur the lines between starter and super sixth man, including our first rookie point guard in Jaden Ivey. Tiers 8 and 9 are the home of players that could be on their way up the rankings, players that are dealing with injury that may have kept them from their typical space, and others that could get starter minutes at any time but aren't guaranteed to hold that role all season.
Shooting guard
Luka Doncic and Tyrese Haliburton are both dual eligible at point and shooting guard, and due to the scarcity of elite production on the wings they man Tier 1 at shooting guard. James Harden has been Tier 1 forever, but slid to Tier 2 this season to join Devin Booker and Dejounte Murray. If Murray weren't sharing the backcourt this season with Trae Young, he likely would've been Tier 1 as well. Tiers 3 and 4 contain players with elite upside, but that find themselves on teams with other superstars or traded into new situations that give them additional question marks. Tier 5 contains four very young guards that have the seeds to develop into elite very soon. Tier 6 has two thirds of the current Splash Brothers. Tiers 7 through 9 contain players that are borderline draftable, and otherwise could make potential free agents of interest once the season begins.
Small forward
Jayson Tatum is solo on the top tier through a mix of proven production, potential upside and a track record of durability. LeBron James and Kevin Durant are clear Tier 1 talents, both firmly in the top-10 of my projections on a per-game basis, but have missed more than 100 combined games over the past two seasons to end up in Tier 2. Clipper teammates Paul George and Kawhi Leonard have Tier 1 ability but a history of durability and load management concerns that dropped them to Tier 3, next to two superstar young wings on the way up.
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Tier 4 contains Brandon Ingram and Jaylen Brown, both still likely on the way up, and Jimmy Butler who, if this were a playoffs-only list, would also be Tier 1. Franz Wagner is one to watch in Tier 5 as a sophom*ore who developed faster than expected as a rookie. Michael Porter Jr. draws the eye in Tier 6, as the back injuries that kept him from being the top overall pick in the NBA draft are the only reason he's not higher on this fantasy ranking as well. Tiers 7 and 8 hold the last small forwards likely to be drafted in most leagues, with the others joining Tier 9 as future waiver wire additions.
Power forward
Both forward slots only have a single name in Tier 1, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is a one-man army for the power forwards. Pascal Siakam and Domantas Sabonis are both do-it-all bigs that are dual eligible at center. Tier 3 should be called the bounce back tier, with Anthony Davis and Zion Williamson trying to return from injury and Julius Randle hoping to rejoin the elite after a down season. Tier 4 is all potential, with NBA Draft top overall pick Paolo Banchero joining Unicorn Kristaps Porzingis. Tier 5 has the second impressive rookie in Keegan Murray, plus three tweener forwards that seem to have found a home that better values their gifts than their previous spots. Tiers 6 and 7 contain the last names that seem to be sure fantasy starters, while Tiers 8 and 9 have several potential/upside picks such as Jabari Smith Jr., Marvin Bagley III and Aleksej Pokusevski whose upside might land them on a higher tier in the near future.
Center
There are three potential first round centers this season, with Joel Embiid and Karl-Anthony Towns joining consensus top overall pick Nikola Jokic in Tier 1. Tier 2 has two players consistently a step away from MVP caliber, but that just as consistently post their strong numbers. Tiers 3 and 4 are potential tiers, with sophom*ores Evan Mobley and Alperen Sengun shooting up the rankings based on what they look like they could become. Tier 5 is the last one that has centers I'm confident are reliable fantasy starters. Tier 6 has centers with impact starter upside but question marks. Tiers 7 through 9 contain more role players and specialists, that have value due to position scarcity and/or for team balance in category leagues.
